What I look for before backing a founder
At the early stage, you’re not really investing in a company — there isn’t much of one yet. You’re investing in a founder, and in their odds of turning a thin, uncertain idea into something durable. The numbers are too young to tell you much. The person is the signal.
After backing and working alongside a number of founders, these are the things I weigh most.
Conviction paired with honesty
The founders worth backing believe in their idea deeply enough to push through the long, unglamorous middle — but they’re also honest about what they don’t know. Conviction without honesty becomes delusion; honesty without conviction becomes drift. The rare and valuable combination is someone who can hold a strong view and update it when the evidence demands.
I listen for how a founder talks about the risks. The ones who can name, clearly and without defensiveness, the things that could kill the company tend to be the ones clear-eyed enough to navigate them.
A real problem, deeply understood
I’m far more interested in a founder’s grasp of the problem than the polish of their solution. Solutions change — most early products barely resemble what the company eventually sells. But a founder who understands their problem at depth, who has lived it or studied it obsessively, has a compass that survives the pivots.
Surface-level understanding shows fast. Ask a second and third “why” and you can tell whether someone has thought in layers or just has a pitch.
The capacity to execute, not just envision
Plenty of people can describe a compelling future. Far fewer can do the daily, concrete work of building toward it. I look for evidence of execution — what they’ve already shipped, recruited, or figured out with almost no resources. How a founder operates when nobody’s watching and nothing’s certain tells you more than any deck.
Why I back more than capital
When I invest, I try to bring the things I’ve had to get right myself: shaping product, building teams, and the operational discipline that scaling demands. Capital is the easy part of the equation. The harder, more valuable part is helping a founder avoid the specific, expensive mistakes that stall good companies — not on the idea, but on the execution.
The best version of early-stage investing isn’t picking winners from a distance. It’s backing capable people and then being genuinely useful while they do the hard work of proving you right.